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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Completions
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

With a subpar 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been as one of the least accurate QBs in football.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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