Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
With a subpar 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been as one of the least accurate QBs in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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