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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -147.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable last year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league. in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

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