Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 3, 2024 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buccaneers to run on 36.7% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of DTs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.