Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 129.8 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6-point underdogs.
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.0% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 56.4 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projection model to total the 11th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 3.3.

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