Baker Mayfield Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders · Week 19, 2024

Updated Jan 13, 2025 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).
The Washington defensive ends profile as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 7th-least run-centric team in football (38.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

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