Bailey Zappe TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Bailey Zappe

NFL · Player Props

Bailey Zappe

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Bailey Zappe TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
This year, the poor Chargers defense has given up a massive 1.55 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-largest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The Patriots have been the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.6% red zone pass rate.
In this contest, Bailey Zappe is anticipated by our trusted projection set to total the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.4.
Bailey Zappe's 50.3% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a meaningful regression in his passing precision over last season's 70.0% rate.
This year, Bailey Zappe has not scored any touchdowns through the air.

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