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Bailey Zappe

Bailey Zappe TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots

Bailey Zappe TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+178/-238).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots have utilized some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 54.4% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in football.

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