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Bailey Zappe Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Bailey Zappe Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 41.5% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most run-focused team in the NFL has been the New England Patriots.

The predictive model expects Bailey Zappe to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (11.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.6% in games he has played).

This year, the porous Denver Broncos run defense has conceded a monstrous 151.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.

The Broncos defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst DT corps in football this year with their run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog this week.

The projections expect the Patriots to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Bailey Zappe has averaged a mere 1.1 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in football among quarterbacks (12th percentile).

With a very bad rate of 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (6th percentile), Bailey Zappe stands as one of the weakest running QBs in the NFL this year.

Bailey Zappe's ground efficiency (3.04 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (19th percentile when it comes to QBs).

More Bailey Zappe Player Props

Bailey Zappe Rushing YardsPlayer Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Bailey Zappe Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16