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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-1250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -900 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 136.6 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Austin Hooper's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 75.4% to 85.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 56.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a measly 54.4 per game on average).

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

After accumulating 24.0 air yards per game last season, Austin Hooper has produced significantly less this season, now averaging 12.0 per game.

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