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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -800.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Austin Hooper's 85.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates an impressive progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

After accruing 24.0 air yards per game last season, Austin Hooper has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 15.0 per game.

Austin Hooper's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 26.3.

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