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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-1300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -930 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1300.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

As it relates to air yards, Austin Hooper grades out in the towering 80th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a striking 24.0 per game.

Austin Hooper's 83.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a material improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 75.4% mark.

The Carolina Panthers defense has been gouged for the most receiving TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.

The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Austin Hooper's 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 26.3.

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