Austin Hooper Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 21

My Account Log Out

reorder

Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots · Week 21, 2025

Updated Jan 25, 2026 7:17 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+760/-1000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +850 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +760.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Austin Hooper's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a noteable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% rate.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
Austin Hooper has put up quite a few less air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Austin Hooper's 13.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 26.3.

More Austin Hooper Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow