Austin Hooper Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2026 5:17 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-610).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -620 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -610.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Austin Hooper's 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a material progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% mark.
This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a whopping 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Austin Hooper has put up far fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Austin Hooper's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 26.3.