Austin Hooper Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 28, 2025 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-580).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +740 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +395.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.
The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
This year, the poor New York Jets defense has been gouged for a colossal 0.47 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13 points.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Austin Hooper has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
Austin Hooper's 12.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 26.3.

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