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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Austin Hooper Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-1450).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +730 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +720.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
  • Austin Hooper's 82.4% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a material gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 75.4% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Austin Hooper has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
  • Austin Hooper's 11.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 26.3.
  • This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens defense has given up a meager 0.21 passing touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
  • The Ravens safeties project as the best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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