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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Austin Hooper's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 75.4% to 87.4%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Patriots, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 51.7% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • In terms of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.93 seconds per play, the model projects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most sluggish in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
  • Austin Hooper's 11.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 26.3.

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