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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -400 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Austin Hooper's 85.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates an impressive progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Austin Hooper's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 26.3.

Austin Hooper's receiving talent has worsened this year, notching just 1.4 adjusted receptions vs 2.6 last year.

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