Austin Hooper Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots · Week 21, 2025

Updated Jan 25, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-220/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Austin Hooper's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a noteable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% rate.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
Austin Hooper's 13.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 26.3.
Austin Hooper's 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a meaningful regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.6 figure.

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