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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Austin Hooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Raiders ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year.

Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 75.6% to 80.5%.

The Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.7%) versus tight ends this year (77.7%).

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Raiders are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Las Vegas Raiders.

The predictive model expects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (just 54.5 per game on average).

Austin Hooper has been less involved as a potential target this year (42.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (60.1%).

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