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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Austin Hooper's 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a material progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.4% mark.
  • Austin Hooper's pass-catching efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 10.55 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.92 mark last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Austin Hooper has put up far fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
  • Austin Hooper's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 26.3.

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