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Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 75.4% to 82.7%.
  • Austin Hooper's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 11.16 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.92 rate last year.
  • The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 9th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Austin Hooper has run fewer routes this season (34.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.9%).
  • Austin Hooper has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
  • Austin Hooper has posted quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

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