Austin Hooper Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Austin Hooper

NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are big -11.5-point underdogs.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) since the start of last season.
Austin Hooper grades out in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with an astounding 11.8% of his team's air yards accumulated.
With a stellar 6.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Hooper has been among the leading pass-game TEs in football in picking up extra yardage.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.3% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see just 122.0 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Patriots since the start of last season (just 56.3 per game on average).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season.
Austin Hooper's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 81.0% to 41.1%.

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