Austin Hooper Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Austin Hooper

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Hooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Austin Hooper has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (7.0 per game).
Austin Hooper's 22.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 9.9.
Austin Hooper is positioned as one of the best tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 5.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 77th percentile.
This year, the porous Rams defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.89 yards.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 29.16 seconds per play, the projections expect the New England Patriots as the 4th-slowest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
Austin Hooper's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 81.0% to 62.9%.