Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
In this contest, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the projections to place in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.7 rush attempts.
With a fantastic rate of 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (90th percentile), Austin Ekeler places as one of the top pure runners in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Austin Ekeler has been a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this season (40.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (54.8%).
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the league last year.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Dallas's collection of DEs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.