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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+118/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +149 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.

Austin Ekeler has received 52.9% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Austin Ekeler has run for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (96th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.9% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.40 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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