Austin Ekeler Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has been given 70.8% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has rushed for 0.62 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 33.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least touchdowns in the league (0.46 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to run defense.

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