Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 24, 2024 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are projected by the model to run 68.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).
In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.9 targets.
Austin Ekeler has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.1% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Austin Ekeler comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 34.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.
In regards to air yards, Austin Ekeler ranks in the lowly 11th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.

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