Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-128).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst unit in the NFL last year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
The projections expect Austin Ekeler to be a much smaller part of his team's run game in this game (29.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (52.5% in games he has played).

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