Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-134/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to garner 14.0 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has garnered 58.3% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.