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Audric Estime

Audric Estime Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Audric Estime Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Saints offensive scheme to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • This week's line indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 137.6 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 59.2 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.4%) vs. RBs this year (78.4%).
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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