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Ashton Dulin

Ashton Dulin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Dulin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-650).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +640 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +510.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are predicted by the predictive model to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-most on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The model projects Ashton Dulin to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line this week (8.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (74.5%) to wide receivers this year (74.5%).

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 1.25 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects the Colts to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.7% red zone run rate.

The Colts are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Ashton Dulin has garnered 3.8% of red zone carries this year (0th among WRs).

Ashton Dulin has notched far fewer air yards this year (1.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).

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