Ashton Dulin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Ashton Dulin

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Ashton Dulin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ashton Dulin to be much more involved in his team's passing offense this week (15.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.3% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (74.8%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (74.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 9.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Ashton Dulin has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 14.0 yards per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among wide receivers.