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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

Antonio Gibson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-840).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -930 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -840.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Antonio Gibson has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on Antonio Gibson's box scores this year.

The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (86.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.8%).

The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Antonio Gibson has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among RBs.

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