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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Gibson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-1350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1350.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (60.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.

While Antonio Gibson has earned 20.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a less important option in New England's ground game near the end zone in this week's contest at 8.4%.

In regards to air yards, Antonio Gibson grades out in the towering 86th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Antonio Gibson has been one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a measly 77.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 19th percentile.

The receiving TD line reads "0" on Antonio Gibson's player page since the start of last season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.

The Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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