Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a remarkable record of 3.50 yards after contact (87th percentile), Antonio Gibson ranks among the best running backs in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Antonio Gibson has been a less important option in his offense's running game this season (12.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.7%).
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year.

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