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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.

The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Antonio Gibson to garner 3.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Antonio Gibson's 13.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 19.9.

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