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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The projections expect Antonio Gibson to accumulate 3.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Antonio Gibson has totaled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Antonio Gibson's 11.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys an impressive gain in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 7.5% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 124.5 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 26.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Antonio Gibson's 20.6% Route% this year conveys a significant drop-off in his pass game workload over last year's 45.5% figure.

The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass game stats across the board.

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