Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 28, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 41.6% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most run-focused team in football has been the New England Patriots.
Antonio Gibson has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 28.3% of snaps compared to 46.0% last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.
The Los Angeles Chargers safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.

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