Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this year (40.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (65.2%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.