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Antonio Gibson
NFL · Player Props
Antonio Gibson
RB · Washington Commanders
Carries
Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022 Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC
NFL Props Antonio Gibson Carries

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Favors Over
  • The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
  • The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Favors Under
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (38.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.2%).
  • The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
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