Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (38.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.2%).
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.