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Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

This year, the porous Houston Texans defense has yielded a whopping 2.14 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 46.5% red zone pass rate.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a mere 53.7 per game on average).

Anthony Richardson has attempted a measly 20.8 throws per game this year, checking in at the 11th percentile among quarterbacks.

Anthony Richardson's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 57.3% to 46.1%.

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