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Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-270).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the projections to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-most on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

Since the start of last season, the poor Dolphins defense has given up a staggering 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

The Dolphins linebackers project as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone pass rate.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 53.0 per game on average).

The leading projections forecast Anthony Richardson to attempt 32.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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