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Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

Last year, the porous Green Bay Packers defense has been torched for a colossal 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Packers linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 50.4% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.

In this contest, Anthony Richardson is predicted by the projections to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.3.

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