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Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-280/+205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +205.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Colts to be the least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Colts to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the league against the Giants defense this year (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).

The New York Giants safeties rank as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The 4th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.6 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.

The New York Giants defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.27 per game this year.

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