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Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+225/-310).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -310.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Colts grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the league against the Tennessee Titans defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).This year, the feeble Titans defense has given up a staggering 1.57 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-worst rate in football.As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's collection of CBs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4-point advantage, the Colts are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.At the present time, the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (44.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Colts.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 126.7 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 54.5 per game on average).
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