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Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football last year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year.

Last year, the shaky Texans defense has been torched for a colossal 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the least pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.5% red zone pass rate.

Anthony Richardson checks in as one of the least accurate QBs in football last year with a 57.3% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 17th percentile.

The Houston Texans defense has given up the 5th-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.18 per game last year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Houston's CB corps has been outstanding last year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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