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Anthony Firkser

Anthony Firkser Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Anthony Firkser Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-161).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -161.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • Anthony Firkser has run fewer routes this year (29.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (5.5%).
  • Anthony Firkser grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an exceptional 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 10th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the formidable Vikings defense has conceded a feeble 70.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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