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Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a giant -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (60.3% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.
  • The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a staggering 60.6 per game on average).
  • The Carolina offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 60.4 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • In throwing a measly 20.0 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Andy Dalton rates among the bottom quarterbacks in the league (11th percentile) by this metric.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns in the league: 1.17 per game this year.

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