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Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-146).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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