Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Andy Dalton has been among the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.75 per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.90 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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